The Argentine economic group Los Grobo, with an axis in the production and agro-industrial food export in Argentina and neighboring countries, offered a talk in the Co-work space of the Hotel Mulen. The president of the firm, Gustavo Grobocopatel, was in charge of initiating the talk and within that framework gave his reflection on the situation of the company with regard to the situation and the market, and raised the agenda they project to eleven years. In this regard, he said that in recent years they have innovated to defend themselves and not to grow, however he hopes that this reality will be reversed over time.
"We hope that the agenda for the next decade is to grow," he said expectantly, assuring that robotization is imminent, as well as new molecules and biotechnology, among other issues. The leader predicted that this will be an opportunity for those who are alert to changes, while those who retract or resist "will be in trouble".
With respect to Los Grobo, he stressed that they are in permanent transformation and that they are changing year after year, since the company went from being a family in its beginnings to having international partners today. "We want to give consistency to the proposals and be more cautious about the volatility, that's why we brought actors from the front line, in fact some invest for the first time in Argentina," he was proud.
He also stressed that these shareholders are preparing for what is coming, where the center of everything is the agricultural producer, "which is the risk runs". He argued that these associations put them on the same side of the counter along with the producers, allowing them to pull together.
Next came Diego de la Puente from the consultant Novitas, who talked about the perspectives of the sector and the grain market, and how to continue adding value. For this, he said that the management of the market is key and indicated that since 1994 they work with this consulting firm and never stopped doing it.
Agriculture, a milestone that changed history
The specialist began the conference emphasizing the importance of an analysis that contains the entire timeline, from the global structure to the current situation.
In this regard, he recalled with regret that there was a period of soybean at $ 600 per ton, wheat at 450 and corn above 300, but that situation suddenly disappeared. Clearly, the question they always ask is whether the current values will go up or down. "The reality is that I do not know", he said honestly and said "that's why the structure is important".
There began the breakdown of history, which went back to the transformation of nomadic peoples to sedentary, because in the middle there was a change that was momentous and was the emergence of agriculture as we know it now. With it came the notion of the future, thinking about projections that determine the exact moment to plan the planting, for example. Also, according to the statistics it showed, it was a milestone that gave a remarkable growth to the world population, leaving aside the question of having to move from one place to another with as few children as possible.
"In the year 10,000 a.C. the number of people went from one million to 170 million, "he explained. At that time, among other things, empires arose. Already between the 1,700 and 1,800 of now, with the Industrial Revolution, the population growth was much faster, but it was in 1990 when "really exploded" that density. "By 2025 an estimated 9,500 million inhabitants, then what I have clear is that we are going to be participants in the second most important moment in the history of mankind, after the appearance of agriculture," he said, adding that according to the data worldwide "today is born twice the number of people who die".
This led him to share the reflection that today lives more, then that is the first variable that will manage the market. "The projection to 2,100 is to reach 7,000 million inhabitants," he said.
On the other hand, taking into account all this demographic review, it focused on the incidence of the growth of the Gross Product per capita. "Towards the last part of 1,900 rose strongly," he said, indicating that people have more purchasing power. On the other hand, it also showed indices that indicate that the use of land for agriculture has also spread in the last ten to twelve years.
China, the United States and us
"We come with five record harvests in the world, however we are talking about soybeans at $ 250 per ton and with retentions close to 30 percent," he said. Faced with this problem, he insisted that the conjuncture must be resolved. "I am an optimist," he emphasized, and stressed that the challenge is to produce more food.
Although he said that new providers that will compete, such as the one Bill Gates projects, which is related to artificial meat, will distinguish that these are different markets. "Whoever wants to eat beef will have to pay, the artificial points to those who do not have high purchasing power," he explained.
On the other hand, he said that China can be the next empire, not only because of its power but because it already was and that benefits him, he said with respect to the rivalry he has with the United States. So it returns to the model of protectionism, with tariffs around the percentage of total imports from the US state. As if to understand the magnitude of the Asian country's growth, Diego de la Puente said that the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) was created in 1996, but China only joined in 2001, "meaning that only 17 years were enough for eat everyone, even the United States".
"Everything was phagocitated," he stressed, justifying that it was for that reason that President Donald Trump decided to start putting tariffs that today are between 25 and 30 percent, reaching a situation similar to that of the 19th century. In this sense, he guaranteed that the United States is in the twilight of its imperialism, "without doubts".
"Within this scheme of conflict between these two powers, our conjuncture appears", contextualized. In this framework, although it assured that soy is the one that has the most complicated situation, it is also the most dynamic of the market, with a production of 370 million tons, 70 percent of the world's soybean is imported, that is, that someone has to go out and buy it because it does not produce it. "On the other hand, it is the most volatile product of all," he said. In contrast to corn, only 15 percent have to go out and buy. Then, he said that the important thing is how much is sold and not the quantity that is produced.
According to his advice, whoever has silver and can withstand the harvest, will sell better, since he maintained that "in this business or you are brilliant or you have money".
For the specialist, the good thing is that the demand continues pulling, because the world trade maintains its growth according to the Department of Agriculture of the United States (Usda) "and that is the important thing. What interests us is that the world continues to consume" he said.
Published by: www.eleco.com.ar
Automatic translation from spanish.